Weather Talk: Light winter snow does not guarantee heavy snow next winter
This winter continues to be rather weak on snow.
Unless something changes, this will be the fifth consecutive winter with less than average snowfall in Fargo-Moorhead — a pattern that is bound to change, right? Well, yes, probably. But when? Does a five-year run of light snow winters indicate a likelihood of heavier snow the next winter?
Think about it in terms of raw probabilities. If a flipped quarter turns up "tails" five consecutive times, are the odds increased that "heads" will turn up next? Actually, no. The odds are still 50-50.
Likewise, there is nothing about a five-year run of light snow winters that guarantees or even increases the likelihood that the next winter will be snowy. Next winter might be very snowy. It also might be about average. Or it might be relatively snow-less again.