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Published January 24, 2014, 06:14 PM

National Weather Service releases first outlook for spring flooding in Fargo-Moorhead

Fargo, ND (WDAY TV) - It's that time of the year again when we start paying attention to the potential for spring flooding for the Red River in Fargo-Moorhead. Early is really the key word here as the biggest takeaway from Friday is that we still just don't know what the spring will hold.

By: Drew Trafton, WDAY

Fargo, ND (WDAY TV) - It's that time of the year again when we start paying attention to the potential for spring flooding for the Red River in Fargo-Moorhead.

Early is really the key word here as the biggest takeaway from Friday is that we still just don't know what the spring will hold.

The growth of snow pack the rate of snow melt and how the ground will thaw and absorb or hold water remains undetermined.

Friday, the National Weather Service released an outlook based off of what we've already seen this winter in addition to averages from previous winters and springs.

Greg Gust/National Weather Service: "Soils right now are wetter than normal south of Fargo and southwest into that Wild Rice, North Dakota Wild Rice drainage especially."

Minor flood stage for Fargo is 18 feet.

The National Weather Service says there's about a 95% chance the river will rise to 19 and a half feet.

But everything drops off significantly from there.

Moderate flood stage for the area is 25 feet and the weather service pegs the chances of surpassing that mark at about 50%.

While chances for major flood stage or more than 30 feet are right around 25%.

The National Weather Service says there is one big factor currently playing in our favor that may keep us dry compared to other North Dakotans.

Gust: "Right now, their snow water content down there is the lowest."

The next Spring Flood Outlook from the National Weather Service will be issued on February 20th and another will follow on March 6th.

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